Popullation


	UNMIK
PROVISIONAL INSTITUTIONS OF SELF-GOVERNMENT	INSTITUCIONET E PËRKOHSHMVE VETQEVERISËSE	PRIVREMENE INSTITUCIJE SAMOUPRAVLJANJA
Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning	Ministria e Ambientit dhe Planifikimit Hapësinor	Ministarstvo Sredine i Prostornog Planiranja

3.	Population

Kosovo’s population estimates range from 1.9 to 2.4 million. The last two population census conducted in 1981 and 1991 estimated Kosovo’s population at 1.6 and 1.9 million respectively, but the 1991 census probably undercounted Albanians. The latest estimate in 2001 by OSCE puts the number at 2.4 Million.

The population density is close to 200 per square kilometer, one of the highest in Europe.

The majority of the population is composed of ethnic Albanians while the largest minority is Serbian. Other ethnic groups include Bosnians, Turks and Roma and constitute a small fraction of the population

3.1.	Population Trends and Demographics

The population in Kosovo as been growing steadily over since World War II. The largest increase as been in the Albanian community while the Serbian population has over all stayed stable. Future trend of population in Kosovo are difficult to predict at this juncture. However the overall population is expected to continue to increase well into this century.

Figure2: Kosovo Population Past , Estimates and Previsions

*Source: Dr. Hivzi Islami Demographic Dimension of Kosovo issue

1: Kosovo Population Past, Estimates and Previsions

Year	Population '000	Comment
1961	964	Actual Census
1981	1,584	Actual Census
1991	1,956	Actual Census (during political troubles)
2001	2,400	OSCE Estimates
2011	2,890	Prevision
2021	3,360	Prevision
2031	3,800	Prevision
2041	4,180	Prevision
2051	4,500	Prevision

The current population is one of the youngest in Europe with around 40 % percent of the population below the age of 20 (Table2 ). Kosovo has seen a drop in birth rate and a drop in infant mortality (Table 3). Also to note that a large segment of the Kosovo population has immigrated during the 1990 to western Europe.

2: Population by Age Distribution

Age	Females	Total
0 to 19 years old	40.2	42.5
20 to 64 years old	54.0	52.0
More than 64 years old	5.8	5.5
Total	100	100

Source: Statistical Institute of Kosovo

3: Birth rates and infant mortality

Source: Dr. Leticia Fernandez, Dr. Ileana Castaneda; Analysis of selected demographic indicators in Kosovo 1975-1995

3: Birth rates and infant mortality

	1975	1976	1977	1978	1979	1980	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995
Crude birth rate ( CBR )	35	35.5	33.5	32.1	30.7	34.2	30.2	32.5	29.8	32.5	31.1	30.7	31	30.4	28.4	28.6	26.6	22.1	21.6	20.9	21.2
Infant mortality	80.3	71.6	73.8	69.5	71.1	57.7	62.9	65.6	69.2	52.9	56.1	51.7	50.7	51.8	51.2	34.4	33.7	34.4	33.3	24.9	23.6

Source: Dr. Leticia Fernandez, Dr. Ileana Castaneda; Analysis of selected demographic indicators in Kosovo 1975-1995

3.2.

Geographical and Ethnic Distribution

Kosovo's population is mainly rural and composed of a majority of ethnic Albanians. Though the data is scretchy, the general trend point toward a growing rural and urban population.

4: Urban and Rural Population

Source: Annual statistics of SPA of Kosovo , 1988, Statistical federation Institute Agricultural statistics in Kosovo

According to the World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study in 2001, around 88 % of the population are ethnic Albanians, Serbian population accounted for 7 %, while other ethnic groups together were estimates about 5 % of the general population. Other groups include Muslims (bosniacs).1.9 % of. Roma 1.7 % and Turks 1 %.

The ethnic distribution of the population is the source of mainly polemic and in view of the conflict and resulting displacement of population difficult to ascertain.

Figure 5: Ethnic distribution 1950- 2000

Source: Annual statistics of SPA of Kosovo , 1988, Statistical federation Institute Agricultural statistics in Kosovo

3.3.	Population and Poverty

A world Bank Survey, “The Living Standards Measurement “found that over half of the population was “living below the poverty line of US$1.65 per adult per day at the end of 2000. For many of the poor poverty was relatively shallow, and an annual amount of US$190 per person would have been sufficient to bring a poor household out of poverty. Nevertheless, the report suggests that around 12 percent of the population live below the extreme (food) poverty line of US$0.88 per adult per day. According to the assessment, the typical household in extreme poverty is of Albanian ethnicity, it has seven members and a high dependency ratio (due to a large number of children), and at least one elderly person. It lives in a rural area; the typical household head is around 50 years old, with a low level of education and works in agriculture.” (Word bank, Kosovo, Federal republic of Yugoslavia, Transitional Support Strategy, July 2002)