UNMIK

PROVISIONAL INSTITUTIONS OF SELF-GOVERNMENT INSTITUCIONET E PĖRKOHSHMVE VETQEVERISĖSE PRIVREMENE INSTITUCIJE SAMOUPRAVLJANJA
Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning Ministria e Ambientit dhe Planifikimit Hapėsinor Ministarstvo Sredine i Prostornog Planiranja

        

3.

Population
 

Kosovo’s population estimates range from 1.9 to 2.4 million. The last two population census conducted in 1981 and 1991 estimated Kosovo’s population at 1.6 and 1.9 million respectively, but the 1991 census probably undercounted Albanians. The latest estimate in 2001 by OSCE puts the number at 2.4 Million.

The population density is close to 200 per square kilometer, one of the highest in Europe.

The majority of the population is composed of ethnic Albanians while the largest minority is Serbian. Other ethnic groups include Bosnians, Turks and Roma and constitute a small fraction of the population

 
 

3.1.

Population Trends and Demographics
 

The population in Kosovo as been growing steadily over since World War II. The largest increase as been in the Albanian community while the Serbian population has over all stayed stable. Future trend of population in Kosovo are difficult to predict at this juncture. However the overall population is expected to continue to increase well into this century.

 

Figure2: Kosovo Population Past , Estimates and Previsions

*Source: Dr. Hivzi Islami Demographic Dimension of Kosovo issue

 

1: Kosovo Population Past, Estimates and Previsions

Year

Population '000

Comment

1961

964

Actual Census

1981

1,584

Actual Census 

1991

1,956

Actual Census (during political troubles) 

2001

2,400

OSCE Estimates

2011

2,890

Prevision

2021

3,360

Prevision

2031

3,800

Prevision

2041

4,180

Prevision

2051

4,500

Prevision

 

The current population is one of the youngest in Europe with around 40 % percent of the population below the age of 20 (Table2 ). Kosovo has seen a drop in birth rate and a drop in infant mortality (Table 3). Also to note that a large segment of the Kosovo population has immigrated during the 1990 to western Europe.

 

2: Population by Age Distribution

Age

Females

Total

0 to 19 years old

40.2

42.5

20 to 64 years old

54.0

52.0

More than 64 years old

5.8

5.5

Total

100

100

Source: Statistical Institute of Kosovo

 

3: Birth rates and infant mortality

Source: Dr. Leticia Fernandez, Dr. Ileana Castaneda; Analysis of selected demographic indicators in Kosovo 1975-1995

 

3: Birth rates and infant mortality

 

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Crude  birth rate ( CBR )

35

35.5

33.5

32.1

30.7

34.2

30.2

32.5

29.8

32.5

31.1

30.7

31

30.4

28.4

28.6

26.6

22.1

21.6

20.9

21.2

Infant mortality

80.3

71.6

73.8

69.5

71.1

57.7

62.9

65.6

69.2

52.9

56.1

51.7

50.7

51.8

51.2

34.4

33.7

34.4

33.3

24.9

23.6

Source: Dr. Leticia Fernandez, Dr. Ileana Castaneda; Analysis of selected demographic indicators in Kosovo 1975-1995

 

3.2.

Geographical and Ethnic Distribution
 

Kosovo's population is mainly rural and composed of a majority of ethnic Albanians.  Though the data is scretchy, the general trend point toward a growing rural and urban population.

 

4: Urban and Rural Population

Source: Annual statistics of SPA of Kosovo , 1988, Statistical federation Institute Agricultural statistics in Kosovo

 

According to the World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study in 2001, around 88 % of the population are ethnic Albanians, Serbian population accounted for 7 %, while other ethnic groups together were estimates about 5 % of the general population. Other groups include Muslims (bosniacs).1.9 % of. Roma 1.7 % and Turks 1 %.

The ethnic distribution of the population is the source of mainly polemic and in view of the conflict and resulting displacement of population difficult to ascertain.

 

Figure 5: Ethnic distribution 1950- 2000

Source: Annual statistics of SPA of Kosovo , 1988, Statistical federation Institute     Agricultural statistics in Kosovo

 

3.3.

Population and Poverty
 

A world Bank Survey, “The Living Standards Measurement “found that over half of the population was “living below the poverty line of US$1.65 per adult per day at the end of 2000.  For many of the poor poverty was relatively shallow, and an annual amount of US$190 per person would have been sufficient to bring a poor household out of poverty. Nevertheless, the report suggests that around 12 percent of the population live below the extreme (food) poverty line of US$0.88 per adult per day.  According to the assessment, the typical household in extreme poverty is of Albanian ethnicity, it has seven members and a high dependency ratio (due to a large number of children), and at least one elderly person. It lives in a rural area; the typical household head is around 50 years old, with a low level of education and works in agriculture.” (Word bank, Kosovo, Federal republic of Yugoslavia, Transitional Support Strategy, July 2002)