Industrialization, urbanization, the increase of industrial and agricultural production, development of motor transport apart from social and economical benefits have resulted in the increase of greenhouse gas emissions, which intensify natural greenhouse effect. This, in turn, leads to the global temperature rise, change in precipitation, and shift of climatic zones. The deterioration of natural carbon sinks contributes to the problem of global climate change.

The anthropogenic effects on the physical and chemical properties of the atmosphere have the potential to directly influence the climatic system. The increase of concentration of greenhouse gases increases the opacity of the atmosphere with long-wave (infrared) radiation. This is the reason for the Earth-troposphere's increase in temperature, causing an increased greenhouse effect.

Water vapor (H₂O), carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O) and ozone (O₃) are the primary greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere. Moreover, there are a number of entirely human-made greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as halocarbons, sulfur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocarbons, and perfluorocarbons. The main anthropogenic greenhouse gas - carbon dioxide (CO₂) contributes 65% of the global greenhouse gas emissions.

For the period between 1990-1998 the global CO₂ emissions were estimated at around 6.3±0.4 billion tonnes of carbon a year, for which Tajikistan was responsible for less than 0.1%. Currently the ocean and the land together are taking up about half of the anthropogenic CO₂, emissions.

The main sources of greenhouse gas emissions in Tajikistan are cement and aluminum production, fossil fuel combustion in transport, industrial, and communal sectors, agricultural activities and land use change, including the reduction of woody biomass in forests. Household and industrial wastes contribute a small part of greenhouse gas emissions.

According to expert assessments, contribution of Tajikistan to the global warming during 1970-2000 totaled to 300 million tonnes of CO₂, including emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production.

The results of GHG inventory show that most of emissions in Tajikistan were observed in 1991 and amounted to 31 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent without consideration of their removal by natural sinks. The least emissions were observed in 1998 and amounted to 6.3 million tonnes.

The biggest reduction is observed in CO₂ emissions, and the small reduction in emissions of CH₄, PFCs and N₂O. CO₂ emissions per capita in the period under review have reduced from 3.8 to 0.5 tonnes; they are the lowest in Central Asia. Tajikistan takes 100th place in the world on the volume of greenhouse gas emissions.

High capacity of hydropower engineering in many respects potentially makes low level of CO₂ emissions nowadays and in the outlook.

CO₂ emissions. In Tajikistan in the period of 1990-1998, the biggest CO₂ emissions were observed in 1991 (22.6 million tonnes), mainly because of fossil fuels combustion. Totally, the volume of carbon dioxide emissions in the period under review has decreased more than 10 times, mainly because of decline in energy-related activities.

The most of CO₂ emissions comes from:

• Fossil fuel combustion in industry, transport and residential sector (82-92%);
• Production of cement, lime, aluminum, ferrous metals and ammonia (8-18%).

Because of illegal deforestation, the absorption of CO₂ by forests and other woody biomass has decreased by 35%. Given that in 1990 this indicator was 588 thousand tonnes, in 1994 it was only 447 thousand tonnes. In the result of changes in land use and reclamation of new lands, absorption of CO₂ by soils increased from 932 thousand tonnes in 1990 to 1.4 million tonnes in 1998. Emission of CO₂ from intensively used soils increased from 19 thousand tonnes in 1992 to 84 thousand tonnes in 1998. However, there are significant uncertainties in the category "Land use change and forestry" due to inaccuracy in activity and other factors.

СН₄ emissions. The biggest volume of СН₄ emissions in the period 1990-1998 in Tajikistan was indicated in 1991 (176 thousand tonnes) mainly because of intestinal fermentation, manure management and oil-gas systems. Totally, in the period under review, the volume of methane emissions has decreased more than 40% as a consequence of structural changes in the agricultural sector and decrease in production and consumption of fossil fuels. Methane emissions from fossil fuel consumption occur in coal mining, oil and gas production and transportation. Contribution of these sources to the total CH₄ emissions in different years comprises 5-35%. Rice cultivation, solid waste disposal sites and wastewater treatment processes are the sources of CH₄ emissions. The volume of methane emissions from these sources comprises 10%.

N₂O emissions. The biggest volume of N₂O emissions in the period 1990-1998 in Tajikistan was indicated in 1990 (about 4 thousand tonnes); the lowest emission was indicated during 1995-1998 (up to 2 thousand tonnes), mainly because of applying mineral fertilizers in agricultural soils. Nitrous oxide emissions in the category "Agriculture" make in different years 97% to 99% of all N₂O emissions. N₂O emissions from other sources (manure management, burning of agricultural residues) are insignificant. Part of N₂O emissions occurs due to fossil fuel combustion, mainly in transport sector.

Perfluorocarbon emissions. The only source of perfluorocarbon emissions in Tajikistan is the aluminum industry, which emits practically up to 100% of these gases. CF₄ comprises the biggest part of emissions (91%); the smallest part is C₂F₆ (9%). Since the production of primary aluminum has decreased from 450.3 thousand tonnes in 1990 to 195.6 thousand tonnes in 1998, perfluorcarbon emissions have proportionally decreased by 57%. The biggest volume of perfluorocarbon emissions was registered in 1990 - 0.69 thousand tonnes. The least PFC emissions indicated in 1997 - 0.29 thousand tonnes. Aluminum production gives rise to the emissions of harmful substances, including nitrous oxides, carbon oxide, sulfur dioxide, fluorides and other pollutants that affect both environment and climate system. Perfluorocarbons have a big potential of global warming. Small quantities of emissions of these gases (less 1 thousand tonne) have significant contribution to the total GHG emissions and comprise up to 32% of total CO₂-equivalent.

In the perspective, without taking response measures on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, the annual volume of aggregate GHG emissions will increase together with economic growth (baseline scenario). Implementation of the measures indicated in National Action Plan has the potential to significantly reduce GHG emissions by 20-30% and more.

However, notwithstanding the measures taken by the international community to solve the climate change problem, the concentrations of the main greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are increasing.

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Last update 03/03/2003
V. Novikov, N. Safarov